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It’s the final six rounds and I have the key to the final placings.

The Daily Telegraph posted an article recently about the projected finishing order of the NRL competition.

According to that “masthead”, the Panthers will finish the season undefeated with the Storm’s only loss being against the Panthers.

Forget about the Raiders, Bulldogs and Broncos they cannot win against last year’s (and presumably this year’s) Grand Finalists. The Broncos will lose against the Storm twice, apparently.

This is lazy journalism, and all based on giving each team a ranking based on a who knows what criteria. The decades old Footy Tipper algorithm could have predicted this.

[Note we are not suggesting the Daily Telegraph used an unauthorised version of Footy Tipper to forecast the final standings.]

It’s easy to say the team who plays the most teams lower than them will end up higher on the ladder. But I think it’s when the teams are competing amongst themselves for the same positions that has a major influence on the ladder.

It will make more sense below.

Please note: Rankings are as at the start of Round 21.

The Race for the Top 4

There are six teams vying for the all-important Top 4 positions. Presuming they will beat all the teams below them, and this is fraught with danger, then the key is when they play against each other.

The impact of a win or loss can make massive differences to their final standings.

The Storm, Panthers and Bulldogs have the most influence here while the Raiders biggest test is in Round 25 when they take on the defending Premiers(x4).

The Final 2 Spots

There are only two spots remaining to play finals football. The ‘Phins have the superior differential but it means naught if they cannot beat the Roosters and Sea Eagles.

Spoon Bowl

The same theory can be applied to the dreaded wooden spoon.

The Rabbitohs may have a Bye up their sleave but must win against both the Eels and Titans to avoid any chance of Coach Wayne Bennett winning his first wooden spoon. Round 23 is the key game for the Spoon.

What are your thoughts on this insightful analysis? Who do you think will make the Top 4/8 or claim the Spoon?

Please leave your comments below.

Rob

-The Creator